Difficult times for the logistics industry
The collapse of the business climate in the logistics industry seems to have momentarily slowed down. Following two dramatic months, the SCI/Logistics Barometer fell only slightly in December. The current reading: a negative record for the logistics industry of almost –50 in the business climate index. In September 2006, the index almost reached +50.
The mood across the industry is the worst it’s been for a long time. Following a good last few years, the logistics sector is currently gearing up for a difficult year in 2009. 73% of companies are expecting a slowdown in business development compared to 2008. They are also cautious in their forecasts about prices and employment rates. However, despite the crisis, there is still a demand for qualified employees, above all at management level.
DACHSER is able to compensate for a drop in demand in some areas by new customer acquisitions in others. The logistics provider benefits from having a broad-based customer structure that makes the company independent of individual industry sectors.
Crisis in the logistics industry expected in 2009
According to the results of the latest SCI/Logistics Barometer survey, the business climate in the German transport and logistics sector is at its lowest ebb since the first survey five years ago. While last year 45% of companies rated their business situation as good and only 2% as poor, today none believe business is good and 46% of service providers judge it as poor. Almost 50% of companies feel the situation has deteriorated compared to a month ago and more than half anticipate a further decline over the coming three months.
After several boom years in the logistics sector, the downturn triggered by the world financial and economic crisis is beginning to have an impact. Companies are preparing themselves for a tough year in 2009, with 73% anticipating slower business development (December 2007: 4%). Only 24% remain optimistic and hope business will continue to be stable. As few as 3% forecast an improvement in their business situation in 2009 (December 2007: 43%).
Price development
When it comes to prices the mood is uncertain. Only half of all companies expect prices to remain unchanged. The price level in 2009 will depend strongly on how companies manage to position their services in the market during the crisis.
Employment rate
38% of companies believe the rate of employment will decline in 2009. This will first of all affect lower-qualified employees and temporary staff. The majority of services providers (57%), however, expect the employment rate to remain stable in 2009. The lack of highly-qualified staff experienced in recent years has made companies more cautious when it comes to cutting jobs.
Economic downturn has a negative impact on capacity utilization
Today, the bottlenecks frequently experienced in the logistics market in the last few years appear to be a thing of the past. As services providers to industry and retailers, the logistics sector is now directly feeling the squeeze of the economic slump. 43% of companies report lower capacity utilization over the past three months. While half still rate this seasonal capacity utilization as normal, 38% consider it to be poor (December 2007: 0%) and only 8% say it is good (December 2007: 58%).
The economic downturn has eased the pressure on the logistics labour market. However, even in times of crisis, 59% of companies still have deficits at middle management level (warehouse managers, project managers and schedulers), compared to 76% last year.
Difficult times for the logistics industry
The SCI/Logistics Barometer
The SCI/Logistics Barometer is a regularly determined benchmark that reflects the intra-industry business situation and outlook. In June 2003, the Barometer launched a survey of 200 representative companies in the logistics sector according to their size, products and other indicators. The figures stated above are based on the results of the December 2008 Barometer survey.
overview eLetter 01/2009
