Assessing the mood in the German logistics sector
The global economic crisis is impacting nearly all segments of the transport and logistics industry. The leading industry associations and research institutions are reporting downturns and issuing worldwide growth warnings.
The findings of the BVL (German Logistics Association) and DIW (German Institute for Economic Research) Logistics Indicator survey reveals a hitherto unknown depression in the sector. The market assessment rate is down 30% over the previous year: “It looks as though we can no longer rely on the regional buffers that normally cushion the effects of economic fluctuations. This crisis is a global crisis of historic proportions,” says BVL Executive Board Chairman Raimung Klinkner. Bernhard Simon, spokesman for the DACHSER management adds: “Of course we, too, are seeing a decline in orders. However, our broad-based customer structure makes us less existentially dependent on the consequences of the crisis. More economically stable customers give us the security to make further future-pointing investments.”
Many industry experts share Simon’s opinion: According to the BVL, logistics providers are taking a less pessimistic view of the order and business trend for the coming twelve months than they did just a few weeks ago. However, the majority of companies are not planning to create any new jobs.
According to the World Trade Organization, there is likely to be a sharper drop in world trade in 2009 than we have ever seen before. Forecasts predict a decline of around nine percent compared to 2008. The International Air Transport Association is also predicting losses for 2009 amounting to 4.7 billion US dollars. Although airlines have reduced their capacities, demand in February was extremely low – the consequence of the collapse in international goods traffic. This trend has been observed since June 2008. Economists see this as a leading indicator for global economic development. Air freight companies do not yet see any signs of a trend reversal.
Around 40% of transport services providers have had to take part of their vehicle fleet off the road, some 33% have laid off staff. The findings of the business cycle analysis conducted by the Bundesverband Güterkraftverkehr Logistik und Entsorgung (German association for haulage, logistics and waste) reveal that around 44% of companies are planning to reduce their vehicle fleet and almost 46% intend to lay off drivers. By the summer, it is feared that up to 70,000 jobs will be lost in the transport logistics sector.
Export rates are also down sharply. As the Federal Statistical Office reports, German exports in the fourth quarter of 2008 declined by 6% compared to the same period in the previous year. Exports to member states of the European Union fell by 9.1% between October and December 2008 compared to the fourth quarter of 2007. The number of transports to Germany’s three major trading partner countries within the EU, France, the Netherlands and Italy, has also slumped. The drop in the export quota (8.5%) to the United States, the most important trading partner outside the EU, is also making itself tangibly felt. On a positive note, exports to China, the second biggest trading partner among the non-member states, increased by 8.7%. With the exception of India, exports to all other emergent industrialized nations, the so-called “BRIC states” (Brazil, Russia, India, China) during the same period were up.
By contrast, German imports grew by 6.3% in 2008 compared to 2007. Positive developments were also recorded for nominal imports, which are based on trade with third countries. Whereas imports from the EU countries declined, imports from non-EU member states, above all from China, Russia, Brazil, India and the US, rose.
In the last edition of our eLetter, the article “Difficult times for the logistics industry” already reported about the business climate in the sector. In this issue, you can read how DACHSER is responding to the situation in the article entitled “Integrative thinking as a possible way out of the crisis”.
overview eLetter 02/2009
